How likely is it? Say so, then see how close you were.

The Insider Index is a free forecasting app for iPhone and iPad. It asks Yes or No questions about public events, mostly in Kenya, that have not happened yet.

This page describes the next version of the app. It is not in the App Store yet: the app there today is the earlier news app.

For adults aged 18 or over. Free, with no purchases in the app.

What it is

A list of questions, each with a Yes or No answer that nobody knows yet. Will it rain in Nairobi on a named day? Will a published figure come in above a stated number? Will a named fixture end in a home result?

Every question says which public source will decide it and when it closes. The subjects are sport results, weather, releases from the Central Bank of Kenya and the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, and dates in culture and technology. There are no questions about politics.

Anyone can read the questions without an account.

How it works

  1. Pick a question.
  2. Give the chance of Yes, as a number from 1 to 99 percent. You can change it until the question closes.
  3. See the crowd forecast, which is the median of everyone's forecasts. It appears once five people have forecast. Before that, you see how many have forecast so far.
  4. When the question resolves, you get a Brier score. It measures how close your forecast was to what happened. Lower is better.

You can add a private note to a forecast, up to 280 characters. Only you can see it.

To forecast you sign in with Apple, with Google, or with an email address and password, and confirm that you are 18 or over. Your date of birth is checked and not stored.

What it is not

  • You pay nothing, and there is nothing to buy.
  • You put nothing at risk, and you receive nothing for a forecast or a score.
  • Scores have no value and cannot be exchanged for anything.
  • There are no ads.
  • There is no leaderboard and there are no public profiles. Your forecasts, notes and scores are visible only to you.
  • It is not advice of any kind.
  • It is not for anyone under 18.

You can delete your account in the app at any time. Deletion is immediate.

If you had an account before version 28.0, the app asks you once whether to keep it for forecasting or delete it. There is no deadline. Until you choose, you can browse but not forecast.

The Insider Index is run by Jessey Charo. Contact: support@insiderindex.org